Special Lectures

Human Security Special Lecture B

Date : 17th January, 2017.
Time : 16:30 – 19:30
Venue: Aobayama Campus, J22: Environment New Building 2F Lecture room, GSES.
Lecturer Title : Tittle: The Uncertainty of Flood.
Lecturer : Prof. YAMADA Tadashi (Faculty of Science and Engineering, Chus University).

One person among the special invited honourable Lecturers was in the person of Professor Yamada Tadashi who graced the second part of the seminar five and six edition of the Human Security Lecture B, to an end successfully with his lectures on the said date. Human Security Program draws experienced professors across the continents especially from Asia and Africa to lay bared of experiences and impact of knowledge acquired on students through the human security program.

Before Professor Yamada Tadashi begun his lectures on the topic: “The Uncertainty of Flood (rainfall and discharge),” he asked a nice question like “Does the Moon exit only when we see it?” An answer to this Philosophical question led to the basics understanding of his topic, and pointed out that “There is no rule without exceptions, there is no structure without collapse, (in engineering or political and probabilistic sense)”. Uncertainty means the unknowns with no measurable probability of outcome or the state of being uncertain. Generally probability states that if the outcomes of an event are mutually exclusive and equally likely to happen, then the probability of the outcome “A” is P(A) which equals the number of outcomes that favours A/Total number of outcomes. “Anything is related to probability, for example the vertical axis shows the relative area of the probability, when throwing a dice shows the number from 1 to 6, so we can see that or know that the probability appearing the number 1 has probability 1/6, but do you know how many times we need to obtained the process, the number of probability of 1/6?, this is a count of throwing the dice. Even if we throw the 1 dice about ten thousand times, the area from the process value of probability 1/6 is for several percentage, has the departure from the process value of the probability 1/6.”

Japan started keeping hydrological data over 150years ago to know the annual rainfall intensity and the temperature of the atmosphere to determine the annual maximum of rainfall,generally the design of flood methods are increasingly supplemented or replaced by riskoriented methods which are based on comprehensive risk analyses. Besides meteorological and hydrological investigations such analyses require the estimation of flood impacts. Flood impact assessments mainly focus on direct economic losses using damage functions which relate property damage to damage-causing factors. In principles the flood damage of a building is attributed to several factors, usually only influx depth and building use are considered as damage-causing factors, this helps plans for the future on several account on flood disasters because over the years flood disasters have render many people homeless, Loss of life, damage to property and therefore it mitigation strategies should be based on a comprehensive assessment of the flood risk combined with a thorough investigation of the uncertainties associated with the risk assessment procedure. The analysis of flood risk is to do investigate the past records of flood process chain from precipitation, runoff generation and concentration in the catchment, flood routing in the river network, and any failure in resilience or possible failure in planning of flood protection measures, overflow to economic damage.

In conclusion participant (students) appreciated the fact of proper planning against future uncertainty before they happened because disasters slow down the progress of development of a country and therefore needs an adequate measures or preparedness, early warning signs to reduce impact of disasters and also there must be resilient in build back better to prevent future reoccurring. These measures will save the vulnerable among the society and also loss of property.

Prepared by: ADJEI Anthony Nyamekeh-Armah.